10 January 2007--Hi, I'm back.

Hi. I have been pretty far removed from this blog, but I am back pretty well for good. I heard President Bush's speech tonight---of course noone believes that his new strategy of 21,500 additional U.S. troops in Baghdad, and 4,000 more in the violent but much more coalition-controlled Anbar province--will actually work. But I do. And here's why.

First of all, I subscribe to Stratfor, the best private intelligence in the world. What's really cool is that they are based in Austin, Texas (yes, we are TEXAS!). And I have been noticing a few little developments that they have reported. Like first, the chief Shiite Imam of Iraq, the Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has just given the go-ahead for the government to completely disarm all militias so that the government will be stabilized. Without saying so, that gives the blessing of the Iraqi and American forces to dismantle and destroy the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr. What makes that even more clearly al-Sistani's intent is the fact that, according to Interior Minister Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, a close disciple of al-Sistani, he also urges the clear-out of all rogue militias in the Sadr City area of Baghdad. Sadr City if the main Shiite district of the city, and the main stronghold of the Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades, the most fanatical of the al-Sadr followers.

There is also general agreement among the members of the Sunni leadership in the Iraqi parliament that the rooting out of the Sunni insurgent militias are now acceptable. Furthermore, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki announced today that no insurgency or militia in Baghdad is off limits to the incursion of either Iraqi or coalition forces--meaning American troops. If there is a free hand to the Americans in and coming to Baghdad and the al-Anbar, along with the well-trained and increasing numbers of Iraqi forces, the job will actually be much easier and the casualties significantly lighter---for Americans, that is. The insurgents and the Mahdi Army will be decimated.

Considering the joint campaign with the Ethiopians in Somalia, and the rumblings by Israel of a massive attack on the Iranian oil fields, especially in light of the fact that President Bush is dispatching an additional supercarrier naval task force to the Persian Gulf, I think that something of a grand strategy is being implemented, without saying so. I also noted that the British forces in Afghanistan just made a major attack on a large Taliban base and inflicted huge casualties (see The CounterTerrorism Blog). Joined with the fact that a long-time reluctant Pervez Musharraf has been laying mines and raising fences along the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and I am beginning to think that President Bush may be doing more effective work than one may surmise, if one believes nearly all of the traditional global media and even a lot of conservative New Media. We'll see.

--Belisarius II--